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Projection β€” illustrative scenario

AI-augmented customer support

Absorbing growth without hiring, and shortening ramp-up

A 60-agent service centre. Real-time drafting assistance grounded in the internal knowledge base. The gain reads as recovered capacity, not headcount removed.

Modelled yearly gain
€335k – €503k

yearly capacity recovered

Payback
2.1 to 3.2 months
Over 3 years
€825k to €1.33M net over 3 years
The context

Sixty agents handle customer requests, at roughly 1,500 productive hours per person per year and an average loaded cost of €45/h. This is the best-documented use case of all: a study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics tracked nearly 5,000 agents at a Fortune 500 software company through the staged rollout of a generative assistant, with a control group. That is a measurement, not a vendor estimate.

What gets put in place
  • Real-time response suggestions grounded in product documentation and resolved-ticket history
  • Automatic conversation summaries and pre-filled interaction records
  • Semantic search across the knowledge base, replacing keyword search
  • Detection of recurring requests to feed the knowledge base and self-service
Model assumptions

Everything on the table

Service centre headcount
60 agents
Productive hours per agent
1,500 h/year β†’ 90,000 h of capacity
Loaded hourly cost
€45/h
Productivity gain applied
+13.8% (the value measured in the source study)
Effective adoption rate (haircut)
60% / 80% / 90% by scenario
Year 1 investment (integration, knowledge base, guardrails, training)
€90,000
Annual running cost in later years
€45,000/year
The model

Three scenarios, not one number

ParameterConservativeCentralHigh
Adoption rate applied60%80%90%
Capacity recovered7,452 h9,936 h11,178 h
Full-time equivalent5.0 FTE6.6 FTE7.5 FTE
Yearly value€335k€447k€503k
Payback period3.2 months2.4 months2.1 months
Net cumulative gain over 3 years€825k€1,161k€1,329k
The +13.8% is not applied to the whole headcount: we weight it by an adoption rate, because in any real rollout some agents use the tool only occasionally. The measured effect concentrates on the least experienced profiles (+35% in the study), which makes this as much an onboarding lever as a productivity one.
Limits and blind spots
  • Recovered capacity is only an economic gain if it is redeployed: absorbing volume growth, bringing an outsourced flow back in house, opening a channel or extending service hours. Decide that up front or the gain evaporates.
  • The source study covers English-language software support with rich documentation. On highly specialised technical support, or in a regulated domain where every answer commits the firm, the expected gain is materially lower.
  • Answer quality depends entirely on the knowledge base. Outdated documentation produces wrong answers faster than before.
  • The gain concentrates on junior profiles. On a very experienced, stable team the measured effect is close to zero.
Success conditions
  • An up-to-date knowledge base with a named owner responsible for maintaining it.
  • An explicit decision, taken before rollout, on what the freed capacity is used for.
  • Guardrails on sensitive topics: contractual commitments, goodwill gestures, personal data β€” the assistant proposes, the agent decides.
  • Before/after measurement against a control group. Without one, the observed effect cannot be separated from seasonality.
Tracking indicators
Issues resolved per hour workedFirst-contact resolution rateTime for a new agent to reach autonomyCustomer satisfaction and ticket reopening rate

What these scenarios are, and what they are not

These are models, built for illustration on public sector benchmarks. They are not results observed at Cardan-AI clients, and they constitute no commitment as to outcome. The improvement rates come from the studies cited; the choice of assumptions, the scope haircuts and the arithmetic are Cardan-AI's, and are shown in full so they can be challenged. Transposed to your organisation, these orders of magnitude can vary widely β€” in both directions.

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